RESEARCH
LOG.

Do C. lectularius, C. hemipterus, and L. boueti share an indispensable, non-substitutable nutritional function across their sustaining natural populations?

A shared, irreplaceable function could change the biological frontier, but marker detection or one laboratory phenotype cannot establish a worldwide, three-species vulnerability.

Primary loss-and-rescue experiments, digestive assays, comparative cimicid symbiont genomes, C. hemipterus regional marker and coinfection evidence, public metadata, and the published L. boueti voucher and assay record. The source-linked register separates detection, predicted capacity, functional necessity, rescue, alternative providers, natural diet, and assay limits by lineage.

In C. lectularius laboratory work, dietary B vitamins restored nymph development, adult survival, and egg hatch to controls after verified Wolbachia loss; adult size and egg production recovered only partly. Riboflavin restored hemoglobin digestion in a later assay, but not all digestive deficits. These results contradict absolute irreplaceability of the measured vitamin contribution under those laboratory diets, not the possibility of a deeper shared function or the persistence consequences of natural diets. Comparative symbiont pathways are predictions, named symbionts turn over, and a single Wolbachia-marker negative does not prove nutritional independence. L. boueti was absent from the comparative genomic sample and has no verified functional nutrition result. No cross-species extinction-ready nutritional vulnerability was demonstrated.

This decision applies only to the F03 hypothesis of one indispensable, non-substitutable nutritional function across all three target species and relevant lineages. It is neither confirmation nor falsification of every possible shared dependency. Literal worldwide extinction remains YELLOW; contact and heritable/autonomous architectures remain RED.

For L. boueti, first verify a fresh specimen series from a demonstrably sustaining human-associated population and determine its partners and nutrient capacities; test a bat-site series if a sustaining bat population is established. For C. hemipterus, compare voucher-confirmed marker-negative and marker-positive, geographically and host-diverse populations for complete partner identity, nutrient status, natural diets, and lifetime viable daughters. For C. lectularius, measure whether laboratory dietary or partner substitution sustains lifetime viable daughters in human and bat-associated lineages on observed natural diets.

Close the desk audit while keeping the biological question open. If the residual function hypothesis is tested, begin with species-verified L. boueti material and baseline partner and nutrient capacity, then compare natural-diet nutrient provision and lifetime viable reproduction across lineages of all three targets under separate research and safety review.

• Hickin et al. 2022 — controlled B-vitamin rescue ↗
• Wiles et al. 2025 — riboflavin and digestion ↗
• Yu et al. 2025 — cimicid symbiont comparison ↗
• Tehran survey 2026 — C. hemipterus marker pattern ↗
• Bernard 1970 — L. boueti type and dwelling record ↗
• Project research record 46fba5f — shared-dependency decision, evidence audit, and register

After the mechanism and global-reach audits, which unanswered questions could still change the literal three-species extinction decision?

A sequence of individual hypotheses did not show which routes remain informative, which can be tested from existing records, or where more literature review has reached its limit.

The frontier map compared biological leverage points and programme barriers across C. lectularius, C. hemipterus, and L. boueti; ranked twelve branches by decision value; and recorded each branch's desk yield and first empirical wall in a structured register.

The map ranked twelve meaningful branches without demonstrating a mission-killing barrier or an evidenced three-species extinction route. F03 shared nutritional function was the highest-value remaining desk falsification test; F11 historical sources and F12 vouchers were partly desk-addressable. F04 founder success, F06 escape, F07 environment, and F08 movement allowed bounded reanalysis. F01 occupancy and repeat reach, F02 low-density detection, F04 field establishment, F05 sustaining host use, and full F12 taxonomy had empirical walls; any three-species F03 claim required L. boueti specimens and functional confirmation. The contact and heritable architectures stayed RED.

YELLOW applies to literal worldwide extinction across the three working targets. Contact and heritable/autonomous architectures remain RED; mapping a frontier is not proof of a viable mechanism.

A source-backed universal impossibility or unavoidable safety veto could turn the overall gate RED. A genuinely shared, non-substitutable function would advance one biological hypothesis, but worldwide GREEN would still require safe selective delivery, reach of every sustaining class, and calibrated extinction certification.

Run the bounded F03 existing-data audit of a shared indispensable nutritional function, including published rescue, replacement-partner, host-lineage, and assay-limit evidence. Index historical and voucher sources for F11 and F12 where useful.

• Hosokawa et al. 2010 — nutritional function and vitamin rescue ↗
• Comparative cimicid symbiont study 2025 — symbiont turnover ↗
• C. hemipterus survey 2026 — variable Wolbachia marker detection ↗
• Project research record 674bec1 — frontier map, founder brief, and branch register

Is any independently sustaining target-species population inherently beyond repeated discovery, lawful access, and clearance?

A single persistent fertile refuge defeats literal extinction. A truly undetectable or inaccessible sustaining class could make finite global clearance untenable.

Specimen-backed host records, human/bat population genetics, poultry observations, L. boueti primary records, geography and access registers, detection evidence, eradication analogues, and a last-refuge model.

Bat-associated C. lectularius is the strongest nonhuman sustaining inference. Poultry-associated classes remain plausible or incompletely measured. One Ghana L. boueti specimen on a bat does not establish a sustaining bat reservoir. No reviewed source demonstrated an immense, permanently inaccessible occupied class; neither a complete population map nor repeat-detection performance exists.

YELLOW applies to literal three-species worldwide reach: feasibility and a fatal reach barrier are both unproved. The separate contact and heritable architecture decisions remain RED.

A specimen-verified inventory of sustaining host classes, measured repeat discovery and access in the least observable class, and explicit accounting for unvisited habitat. Evidence of an effectively unreachable sustaining class could turn the gate RED; defensible global coverage could move it toward GREEN.

Pre-register a bounded, specimen-verified C. lectularius bat-roost surveillance feasibility study with repeat-detection measurement and explicit unsurveyed-habitat accounting; review L. boueti vouchers and localities in parallel.

• Booth et al. 2015 — bat-associated C. lectularius ↗
• Rosen et al. 1987 — poultry-barn C. hemipterus ↗
• Nartey 2015 — L. boueti bat specimen ↗
• Project research record f8dd457 — global reach decision and reservoir register

Could a heritable or autonomous effect reach populations that contact exposure misses?

Inheritance could reduce repeated delivery only where populations actually exchange reproduction. A disconnected fertile component remains a separate extinction obligation.

Target-species genomic and inheritance literature, natural symbiont observations, human/bat population genetics, mosquito analogues, and a conditional connected-population model.

No self-sustaining suppressive inherited system is demonstrated in C. lectularius, C. hemipterus, or L. boueti. Sampled human and bat-associated C. lectularius are strongly differentiated; field exchange is limited or unmeasured. The model can suppress connected patches under hypothetical parameters, but its isolated fertile refuge survives every case.

RED applies to heritable or autonomous suppression as the programme's worldwide solution on present evidence. It does not mean local inherited effects are impossible or that the overall extinction objective is RED.

A demonstrated safe suppressive inherited system in a target species, measured field reproductive connectivity and resistance, and an independent way to cover disconnected components. No such program is established.

Record the RED decision in the mechanism ranking and close this architecture branch pending independent reservoir-closure evidence.

• Booth et al. 2015 — host-associated genetic structure ↗
• DeVries et al. 2020 — laboratory human/bat crosses ↗
• Project research record 01a68a2 — inherited-suppression audit and model

Does a bed bug that survives secondary contact produce fewer viable reproductive daughters over its remaining life?

Pooled egg counts and recipient mortality cannot prove lasting reproductive suppression among the survivors that would sustain a population.

Primary fungal-transfer studies, primary exposure and ingestion studies, an endpoint-level evidence register, and V2 sensitivity cases. The audit separated secondary recipients from primary exposure and mortality from survivor reproduction.

No verified study tracked an individually identified secondary-exposed survivor through remaining-life viable daughter production. Aak 2018 did count pooled arena eggs; those eggs could not be assigned to surviving recipients. Hypothetical model breakpoints cannot supply the missing biological ratio, and even complete sterility among reached bugs leaves an untreated fertile refuge.

RED applies to the contact-plus-lasting-reproductive-loss architecture as a worldwide route on current evidence. It does not decide the feasibility of literal extinction through every conceivable architecture.

An independently audited study measuring remaining-life viable daughters per verified secondary-exposed surviving female against matched surviving controls, with mortality and recovery reported separately. That would test the biological effect, not worldwide reach.

Ask a qualified bed bug entomologist to audit the endpoint register for any overlooked secondary-survivor lifetime viable-daughter dataset, using the outcome-only brief as the endpoint definition.

• Aak, Hage & Rukke 2018 — pooled arena eggs and mortality ↗
• Aak, Hage & Rukke 2023 — primary exposure comparison ↗
• Project research record f1de10b — survivor-reproduction audit and endpoint register

Can contact plus lasting reproductive loss extinguish a connected population if one fertile refuge receives no contact?

A treated human population does not equal species extinction if an animal-associated or other source keeps reproducing, even without movement back to people.

A two-patch C. lectularius extension of V1; illustrative contact, kill, reproductive-loss, and movement rates; stochastic finite-population cases; transfer and reservoir literature.

In one assumed case, the reached patch had daily λ = 0.92429, the untreated refuge λ = 1.05290, and the joint system λ ≈ 1.05195. Contact could drive a closed, fully reached model network below replacement, but no study established the required durable viable-offspring effect after secondary contact. Bat-associated C. lectularius also defeats a human-only endpoint.

RED applies to contact plus lasting reproductive loss as a credible worldwide-extinction route on the evidence then available. It does not mean every possible route or the overall extinction objective is RED.

Verify durable viable-offspring loss in surviving secondary recipients, calibrate adult and nymph reach, and show a credible path to every independently sustaining refuge. The model cannot manufacture these measurements.

Write an outcome-only, preregisterable measurement brief for an independent contained C. lectularius study of secondary-contact incidence, mortality, and lifetime viable daughters among surviving contacted females.

• Aak, Hage & Rukke 2018 — transfer limits ↗
• Booth et al. 2015 — bat-associated lineages ↗
• Project research record d7cf00f — connected-population model and founder decision

Could centrally delivered contact exposure spread far enough, and impair viable reproduction long enough, to avoid repeated household treatment?

This route could, in theory, reduce dependence on repeated household participation. Literal extinction would still require every sustaining refuge to be included.

Primary studies on fungal secondary transfer and apartment movement; mechanism, resistance, species, and reservoir evidence; and published eradication analogues.

Secondary transfer and mortality had been observed in C. lectularius laboratory settings. No study supplied the lasting viable-offspring effect after secondary contact, a calibrated daily reach rate, or coverage of all three species and nonhuman populations. The route was selected as a falsifiable research target, not accepted as an intervention.

The contact-plus-reproduction architecture was selected for a falsifiable test. This phase did not accept it as a working intervention or issue a formal color verdict.

Measured adult and nymph secondary reach, individually tracked surviving-recipient viable daughters, and evidence that no fertile host or geographic component remains untouched.

Build a versioned three-species host-and-mechanism evidence register, then use it to set bounded ranges for the two-patch V2 threshold analysis.

• Aak, Hage & Rukke 2018 — fungal secondary transfer ↗
• Cooper et al. 2015 — movement among apartments ↗
• Project research record e3d46c6 — contact mechanism review

What would the word extinction have to include beyond a treated home, city, or human-host population?

A species survives if any independently fertile population survives. Local control or human-infestation elimination is a different endpoint.

The V1 model's boundaries, species and host records, apartment movement and detection studies, and the evidence needed to certify worldwide absence.

The working target list became C. lectularius, C. hemipterus, and L. boueti, subject to taxonomic review. Animal-associated populations, travel, resistance, imperfect detection, and lawful access all sit outside V1. No present result established worldwide feasibility.

This phase defined the worldwide target and evidence gates. It did not issue a formal feasibility verdict for the full programme.

A specimen-backed map of every sustaining host class, representative field vital rates, calibrated detection, and evidence that all populations can be reached and cleared.

Build the taxon, reservoir, and detection evidence register before extending the V1 simulation.

• Booth et al. 2015 — human and bat-associated C. lectularius ↗
• How & Lee 2010 — C. hemipterus life histories ↗
• Project research record c06fa45 — global feasibility boundary

Could a modeled common bed bug population fall below replacement when enough blood meals lead to mortality or reduced viable reproduction?

A species-level endpoint first requires a way to make births fall below deaths. A closed model can test the arithmetic before any claim about field reach or safety.

A published laboratory life table for a Richmond C. lectularius strain; stage-structured deterministic thresholds; sensitivity checks; and seeded finite-population simulations.

Under one illustrative combination of 40% treated-meal coverage, 80% attributable mortality per covered meal, and 50% viable-egg reduction among surviving exposed females, daily growth was λ = 0.9973. Stronger assumed coverage produced faster decline. These are hypothetical performance inputs, not measured delivery or a real drug effect.

This phase calculated conditional behavior for one closed C. lectularius model. It made no formal decision on worldwide feasibility or an intervention architecture.

Measure actual meal-level coverage, joint mortality and viable-offspring effects, field life histories, and safety; then test immigration and other species. A modeled threshold alone cannot establish global feasibility.

No specific next action was recorded.

• Polanco, Brewster & Miller 2011 — laboratory life table ↗
• Project research record 6870327 — initial model findings and limitations